Mine That Bird.
Mine That Bird.
Days later, it’s still hard to believe. Mine That Bird, last seen finishing off the board in the Sunland Park Derby, will have his name on Kentucky Derby mint julep glasses for as long as they make them.
I don’t know of a single serious handicapper who had him. I had to cash in a voucher at the OTB after the Derby, and the line was comprised of a handful of drunks who liked the name.
One wag noted that there are probably some rich ornithologists out there. Maybe some Charlie Parker fans, too. I imagine Peter Griffin had him:
So now, Andy Beyer, Randy Moss (not that one) and all the other public handicappers are trying to figure it out. Remembering my dad’s admonition that “they all look good after the race,” I submit the following:
1. Mine That Bird enjoys running through a moat. There was no evidence of this in his past performances, as he had not raced on an off track before last Saturday. While he had some off-track ability in his bloodline, so did several others in the field. There are just some eventualities that you can’t predict in this game.
2. This is a weak 3-year-old crop (forget about Rachel Alexandra for the moment), made worse by several key injuries. By the time the Derby came around, the top four finishers in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were all out of action, as were the two best hopefuls to arise from the Derby preps, I Want Revenge and Quality Road. But even so, several of this year’s Derby entrants would have wound up in the Withers or the Federico Tesio at this time last season because they wouldn’t have had enough graded stakes earnings. Mine That Bird didn’t have to beat as much as he would have in some other years.
3. To paraphrase the salesmen in The Music Man, Calvin Borel knows the territory. Borel must have been really good to some old man who plays Skee Ball (inside joke for you Dogma fans) at some point. In two of the last three Derbys, “Bo-Rail” has made his patented (OK, he hasn’t really patented it, but maybe he should) move from far back along the Churchill rail, and the holes opened up for him at the right time.
4. It could be that Mine That Bird is better than his prep race form suggests. He was named Canada’s 2-year-old of the year, which is not chopped liver. The Preakness will tell whether the gelding is a one-hit wonder. Remember that Canonero II—who came to the 1971 Derby off a loss in a $3,500 handicap in Venezuela—shocked the world with his victory, then followed it up by setting a track record while winning the Preakness.
There is one thing we know for sure.
The legend of the Kentucky Derby has gotten bigger.
If you missed it, or just want to relive it, sit back and enjoy.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
The obligatory 2009 Kentucky Derby blog entry
Many Kentucky Derbys have had 20 starters, but I haven’t seen a recent one where the pool of talent was shallower.
Several horses that would not have had the graded earnings to break into the field in past years have, due to attrition, been able to give their owners free access to the best Derby parties, and little else.
Consider that six horses each have only a maiden win, and only three have won a Grade 1 stakes. One of the race’s “buzz” horses, Dunkirk, is eligible for a non-winners-of-three allowance.
Then there are horses that have raced on synthetic tracks in all or most of their starts. Synthetic surfaces are as different from dirt as dirt is from turf. The Derby is not the place to make your dirt debut. Note that none of the top four finishers in the 2008 Derby had raced on a synthetic track. I don’t think that was just a coincidence. (Nor was it Just A Coincidence—he ran last week.)
All this has made my handicapping a bit easier this year—almost too easy.
My first group of horses to eliminate is those who are clearly overmatched: Mine That Bird, Join In The Dance, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private.
Then there are those who have not started on dirt, or have shown poor form on dirt: Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Pioneerof The Nile.
Which leaves us with 10 horses.
Regal Ransom and Desert Party—Here we go again. Sheikh Mohammed is determined to have things his way by prepping his horses in Dubai instead of the U.S. This has not worked in the past, and I don’t see this year being an exception. These horses’ 2-year-old starts in the U.S. were not outstanding enough to overcome the unorthodox training strategy (although you might want to throw Desert Party in your exotics if the track is muddy). It’s also telling that Frankie Dettori didn’t come over to ride one of them.
Summer Bird—I was looking at this one as a live longshot after the move he made at the end of the Arkansas Derby until I looked at his past performances. March 1 of the 3-year-old year is the latest racing debut for a Derby starter I can recall. His connections are asking for too much, too soon.
Dunkirk—I’ve never seen so much support at the Derby for a horse who has never won a stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher blamed a slow pace for Dunkirk’s loss in the Florida Derby. In what universe is six furlongs in 1:10.3 slow? Watch the replay of that race and you’ll see that he just couldn’t stay with Quality Road down the lane.
General Quarters—He’s been one of the feel-good stories because his owner-trainer is a 75-year-old retired teacher. He looked good in the Sam F. Davis (and the Blue Grass, of course, but that was on a rubber track), where he handed Musket Man his only loss. I watched both the Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby (where Musket Man won) and didn’t see a real excuse for either loss. Then again, all races at Tampa Bay Downs look like a stampede through a sandbar. I prefer Musket Man because his overall record is more consistent.
And now, in honor of Dr. Demento, it’s Funny Five time!
5. WEST SIDE BERNIE—Every year, there’s a plodder who comes in third or fourth and messes up everybody’s gimmicks. This one is a late-closer with dirt experience, and he’s been getting a share of the purse against the big boys. He could be this year’s Denis of Cork.
4. MUSKET MAN—Don’t overlook a horse who has never been off the board, especially one with that all-important dirt experience.
3. FRIESAN FIRE—The karma choice. After all the undeserved abuse his connections have taken after Eight Belles’ death last year, it would be so great for them—and the sport—to see them win it all. I would feel a little better, though, if the horse’s last race weren’t seven weeks ago. Could move up one—or two—notches if the track is sloppy.
2. PAPA CLEM—I thought of him as a one-dimensional speedball, but the Arkansas Derby reverses that judgment. He showed that he doesn’t need the lead, and his kind of tactical speed is very dangerous in the Derby.
Call me a chalk-eating weasel, but on paper and on video, there is a clear number one this year….
1. I WANT REVENGE—He was just one of several contenders on the West Coast plasti-tracks, but a move to the New York dirt gave him another gear. Reminds me of what happened when Cigar was moved from turf to dirt. If you have any doubts, just watch this:
Anything that could have gone wrong did for I Want Revenge in the Wood—a horrible start, traffic problems in the stretch, and a pace that was down to a crawl—but he still won. Barring a true disaster, I don’t see what else the Derby could throw at him.
That’s it. Your mileage may vary.
Several horses that would not have had the graded earnings to break into the field in past years have, due to attrition, been able to give their owners free access to the best Derby parties, and little else.
Consider that six horses each have only a maiden win, and only three have won a Grade 1 stakes. One of the race’s “buzz” horses, Dunkirk, is eligible for a non-winners-of-three allowance.
Then there are horses that have raced on synthetic tracks in all or most of their starts. Synthetic surfaces are as different from dirt as dirt is from turf. The Derby is not the place to make your dirt debut. Note that none of the top four finishers in the 2008 Derby had raced on a synthetic track. I don’t think that was just a coincidence. (Nor was it Just A Coincidence—he ran last week.)
All this has made my handicapping a bit easier this year—almost too easy.
My first group of horses to eliminate is those who are clearly overmatched: Mine That Bird, Join In The Dance, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private.
Then there are those who have not started on dirt, or have shown poor form on dirt: Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Pioneerof The Nile.
Which leaves us with 10 horses.
Regal Ransom and Desert Party—Here we go again. Sheikh Mohammed is determined to have things his way by prepping his horses in Dubai instead of the U.S. This has not worked in the past, and I don’t see this year being an exception. These horses’ 2-year-old starts in the U.S. were not outstanding enough to overcome the unorthodox training strategy (although you might want to throw Desert Party in your exotics if the track is muddy). It’s also telling that Frankie Dettori didn’t come over to ride one of them.
Summer Bird—I was looking at this one as a live longshot after the move he made at the end of the Arkansas Derby until I looked at his past performances. March 1 of the 3-year-old year is the latest racing debut for a Derby starter I can recall. His connections are asking for too much, too soon.
Dunkirk—I’ve never seen so much support at the Derby for a horse who has never won a stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher blamed a slow pace for Dunkirk’s loss in the Florida Derby. In what universe is six furlongs in 1:10.3 slow? Watch the replay of that race and you’ll see that he just couldn’t stay with Quality Road down the lane.
General Quarters—He’s been one of the feel-good stories because his owner-trainer is a 75-year-old retired teacher. He looked good in the Sam F. Davis (and the Blue Grass, of course, but that was on a rubber track), where he handed Musket Man his only loss. I watched both the Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby (where Musket Man won) and didn’t see a real excuse for either loss. Then again, all races at Tampa Bay Downs look like a stampede through a sandbar. I prefer Musket Man because his overall record is more consistent.
And now, in honor of Dr. Demento, it’s Funny Five time!
5. WEST SIDE BERNIE—Every year, there’s a plodder who comes in third or fourth and messes up everybody’s gimmicks. This one is a late-closer with dirt experience, and he’s been getting a share of the purse against the big boys. He could be this year’s Denis of Cork.
4. MUSKET MAN—Don’t overlook a horse who has never been off the board, especially one with that all-important dirt experience.
3. FRIESAN FIRE—The karma choice. After all the undeserved abuse his connections have taken after Eight Belles’ death last year, it would be so great for them—and the sport—to see them win it all. I would feel a little better, though, if the horse’s last race weren’t seven weeks ago. Could move up one—or two—notches if the track is sloppy.
2. PAPA CLEM—I thought of him as a one-dimensional speedball, but the Arkansas Derby reverses that judgment. He showed that he doesn’t need the lead, and his kind of tactical speed is very dangerous in the Derby.
Call me a chalk-eating weasel, but on paper and on video, there is a clear number one this year….
1. I WANT REVENGE—He was just one of several contenders on the West Coast plasti-tracks, but a move to the New York dirt gave him another gear. Reminds me of what happened when Cigar was moved from turf to dirt. If you have any doubts, just watch this:
Anything that could have gone wrong did for I Want Revenge in the Wood—a horrible start, traffic problems in the stretch, and a pace that was down to a crawl—but he still won. Barring a true disaster, I don’t see what else the Derby could throw at him.
That’s it. Your mileage may vary.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
La Coupe Stanley
La Coupe Stanley. I just love to say that. I don’t know why. There’s just something about mixing French and English that seems weird.
It may not be the most popular sports championship, but it is certainly one of the biggest. Literally. I can’t think of any team sports trophy that has the names of every team winner engraved on it. It’s the sports trophy answer to 6-foot-7, 263-pound Hal Gill.
It’s also the only sports championship where the sport is a totally different game than the regular season.
Sure, it’s still hockey, in that 12 players with sticks will bat a puck back and forth across a sheet of ice. But the intensity makes it a completely different game. When announcers say, during a lively stretch of a regular season game, that the teams are playing “tournament hockey,” it’s a big compliment.
The NHL has the longest season of all the major American sports, in a sport that is rivaled only by football in toughness. It’s impossible to maintain intensity from October to June, so there are bound to be lulls in the action. Try to stay awake at 1 a.m. as the Penguins play the L.A. Kings in December, and you’ll wonder how you became a hockey fan.
But all that is forgotten this week as 16 teams spend all their reserves in pursuit of the Stanley Cup.
A good example is Wednesday’s 4-1 Game 1 win by the Penguins over the Philadelphia Flyers. The Penguins have been improving steadily over the past few weeks with the addition of Coach Dan Bylsma, the return to action of powerful shooter Sergei Gonchar, and skillful trades that brought Bill Guerin, Chris Kunitz and Craig Adams to the ‘Burgh. But Wednesday night, they reached yet another level, including a 33-27 edge in shots and a 38-21 advantage on faceoffs.
Regardless of who your team is, they will play like you’ve never seen them before in the next few days. Everybody wants to win La Coupe Stanley.
It may not be the most popular sports championship, but it is certainly one of the biggest. Literally. I can’t think of any team sports trophy that has the names of every team winner engraved on it. It’s the sports trophy answer to 6-foot-7, 263-pound Hal Gill.
It’s also the only sports championship where the sport is a totally different game than the regular season.
Sure, it’s still hockey, in that 12 players with sticks will bat a puck back and forth across a sheet of ice. But the intensity makes it a completely different game. When announcers say, during a lively stretch of a regular season game, that the teams are playing “tournament hockey,” it’s a big compliment.
The NHL has the longest season of all the major American sports, in a sport that is rivaled only by football in toughness. It’s impossible to maintain intensity from October to June, so there are bound to be lulls in the action. Try to stay awake at 1 a.m. as the Penguins play the L.A. Kings in December, and you’ll wonder how you became a hockey fan.
But all that is forgotten this week as 16 teams spend all their reserves in pursuit of the Stanley Cup.
A good example is Wednesday’s 4-1 Game 1 win by the Penguins over the Philadelphia Flyers. The Penguins have been improving steadily over the past few weeks with the addition of Coach Dan Bylsma, the return to action of powerful shooter Sergei Gonchar, and skillful trades that brought Bill Guerin, Chris Kunitz and Craig Adams to the ‘Burgh. But Wednesday night, they reached yet another level, including a 33-27 edge in shots and a 38-21 advantage on faceoffs.
Regardless of who your team is, they will play like you’ve never seen them before in the next few days. Everybody wants to win La Coupe Stanley.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Picking up the Pen (s)
I'm going to tempt the fates here and deliver a mini-analysis of what's gone right with the Penguins since Dan Bylsma took over as head coach. The turn-around has been nothing short of stunning. Since Bylsma took over on February 16th, the team has lost just two out of 18 games in regulation time, and lost only three games in OT or shootouts, taking one point. They have won 13 games, three of those in OT or shootouts. The Pens came into Bylsma's term with 58 points. Headed into the final seven games of the season, a team that had a slim to none chance of making the playoffs now sits firmly if a tad uncomfortably in sixth place, with 88 points and a bit of wiggle room either way that could, potentially, get them into a home-ice situation in the first round depending on how other teams do.
I'll let you think on that for a minute. 30 points since Bylsma took over, in 18 games. Freaking unbelievable.
Now, not for one second do I believe the coaching change is responsible for all of that. The dead, stinking albatross-like weight of Ryan Whitney was finally eliminated from the shoulders of the team. Defensive leader Sergei Gonchar came roaring back with a vengance, earning 15 points in 18 games. And late trading was good to the Penguins, with the additions of Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, and Craig Adams.
Still, could Michel Therrien have done the same with the same circumstances? I doubt it. In hockey, sometimes a team is just done with a coach, and as much as I like Therrien and as great as his results were last year, it was apparent that the players were through with him. It's a little sad, but it's not the first time this has happened to a hockey coach, and it won't be the last. Therrien understands that, as does Bylsma, I'm sure. It's tough to keep everyone on your side and working to their full potential when things start to go bad, and Therrien was unable to stop the skid. Good luck to him, wherever he ends up.
In the meantime, Dan Bylsma has a fired-up team, and excited fan base, and a stellar record in his brief tenure. Here's hoping he can continue the success deep into the playoffs, and here's hoping that, if he doesn't, the team will continue to perform for him next year if GM Shero keeps him on.
In other news, I found this sweet Mario Lemieux commercial from 1987 on youtube while I was looking for something else.
Love that two-toned grey Blazer. I'll bet Mario doesn't drive one of those any more.
Here's what I was looking for, the "Great Day for Hockey" commercial featuring Evgeni Malkin. It's not as good as I wanted it to be since it's just recorded from someone's television set, but it's an awesome commercial because it really showcases Malkin's skills as a player and how he sees the game.
Hopefully at some point I can find a better copy.
A random bit of Errey-Otica.
(Be sure to check out Erreyblog for the best coverage of Bob and Steigy's verbal pulchritude.)
"There's five guys on that puck! Just throw a blanket over them!" WHAT????
Until next time...
I'll let you think on that for a minute. 30 points since Bylsma took over, in 18 games. Freaking unbelievable.
Now, not for one second do I believe the coaching change is responsible for all of that. The dead, stinking albatross-like weight of Ryan Whitney was finally eliminated from the shoulders of the team. Defensive leader Sergei Gonchar came roaring back with a vengance, earning 15 points in 18 games. And late trading was good to the Penguins, with the additions of Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, and Craig Adams.
Still, could Michel Therrien have done the same with the same circumstances? I doubt it. In hockey, sometimes a team is just done with a coach, and as much as I like Therrien and as great as his results were last year, it was apparent that the players were through with him. It's a little sad, but it's not the first time this has happened to a hockey coach, and it won't be the last. Therrien understands that, as does Bylsma, I'm sure. It's tough to keep everyone on your side and working to their full potential when things start to go bad, and Therrien was unable to stop the skid. Good luck to him, wherever he ends up.
In the meantime, Dan Bylsma has a fired-up team, and excited fan base, and a stellar record in his brief tenure. Here's hoping he can continue the success deep into the playoffs, and here's hoping that, if he doesn't, the team will continue to perform for him next year if GM Shero keeps him on.
In other news, I found this sweet Mario Lemieux commercial from 1987 on youtube while I was looking for something else.
Love that two-toned grey Blazer. I'll bet Mario doesn't drive one of those any more.
Here's what I was looking for, the "Great Day for Hockey" commercial featuring Evgeni Malkin. It's not as good as I wanted it to be since it's just recorded from someone's television set, but it's an awesome commercial because it really showcases Malkin's skills as a player and how he sees the game.
Hopefully at some point I can find a better copy.
A random bit of Errey-Otica.
(Be sure to check out Erreyblog for the best coverage of Bob and Steigy's verbal pulchritude.)
"There's five guys on that puck! Just throw a blanket over them!" WHAT????
Until next time...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Coincidence?
Hmm.
Pitt makes the Elite 8.
The Penguins are on track to a solid playoff position after a VERY shaky couple of months.
And I haven't been blogging much here.
Coincidence?
You decide.
Pitt makes the Elite 8.
The Penguins are on track to a solid playoff position after a VERY shaky couple of months.
And I haven't been blogging much here.
Coincidence?
You decide.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
A pre-emptive strike
After being upset by West Virginia in the Big East Tournament, you may need to be convinced that the Pitt men’s basketball team is headed for big things in the NCAA Tournament.
Don’t worry. Check with Pittsburgh City Council.
Council has given its preliminary approval to legislation that would ban upholstered couches from outdoor use. What does this have to do with the NCAAs?
For one thing, putting indoor couches on your porch doesn’t make aesthetic sense. It sounds like the perfect setup for a Jeff Foxworthy joke. But I think Council has another issue on its mind.
Council wants to deter Pitt fans from burning couches should they win the Big Dance.
Furniture burning has become a dubious tradition after sporting events. Stories of couch-burning after the Ohio State-Michigan or Pitt-West Virginia football game have become legendary.
The latest episode occurred after Super Bowl XLIII, when all the local news channels had their cameras fixed on a single, burning couch in the middle of Forbes Avenue.
I don’t understand the phenomenon. Maybe you have to be a college student (and very drunk), but I’d really like to see one of those kids make payments on a couch from IKEA and then set it on fire.
(And, yes, it scares me that I sound like my dad now.)
All the same, I don’t think City Council would be in a hurry to pass this legislation if Pitt were a nine-seed.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Drive-by post
I'll tell you what, if nobody in the NBA is smart enough to draft Levance Fields, they don't deserve him. That kid is the best point guard I've seen since Jen Rizzotti.
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