The history books will say that Mine That Bird won the 2009 Kentucky Derby and Rachel Alexandra won the 2009 Preakness, but that might not prove to be the real story.
The real winner could be horse racing itself.
This is the first time in a few years that I’ve seen the sports world this excited about horse racing. Mine That Bird’s 50-1 victory put him on the cover of Sports Illustrated and jockey Calvin Borel on The Tonight Show. Rachel Alexandra’s game win was the top story on SportsCenter and has a nation anticipating a rematch in the Belmont.
For all the recent talk about horse racing’s decline—and its many problems that have not gone away—the rumors of its death may be greatly exaggerated.
There was another time when horse racing was on a downward arc. General anti-gambling sentiment hit America around the turn of the 20th century. Many tracks closed. Churchill Downs went bankrupt, and the Kentucky Derby was a relatively minor stakes.
Key to the Derby’s resurrection—and the sport’s in general—were wins by a longshot and a filly.
First there was Donerail’s victory at 91-1 in the 1913 Derby—still the longest shot to win the race. Then there was Regret, who was undefeated when she became the first filly to win the Derby in 1915. These were the first in a series of notable wins in the 1910s and 1920s that brought the Derby back into the national spotlight and helped to make horse racing one of America’s most popular spectator sports.
Other sports have gone through down cycles, too. SI ran an article declaring the NBA dead—the year before Larry Bird and Magic Johnson were drafted. The NHL was off network TV for years, but now it’s on NBC and several cable channels. And, while I don’t really consider it a sport—but it proves my point—professional wrestling was late-night TV filler before the Wrestlemania phenomenon of the 1980s.
Could we be seeing the beginnings of a Thoroughbred renaissance? Can horse racing be the top story on SportsCenter more than twice a year? Will we soon see Calvin Borel stickers next to NASCAR decals on people’s cars?
Stranger things have happened….
Showing posts with label Churchill Downs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Churchill Downs. Show all posts
Monday, May 18, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
The obligatory 2009 Kentucky Derby blog entry
Many Kentucky Derbys have had 20 starters, but I haven’t seen a recent one where the pool of talent was shallower.
Several horses that would not have had the graded earnings to break into the field in past years have, due to attrition, been able to give their owners free access to the best Derby parties, and little else.
Consider that six horses each have only a maiden win, and only three have won a Grade 1 stakes. One of the race’s “buzz” horses, Dunkirk, is eligible for a non-winners-of-three allowance.
Then there are horses that have raced on synthetic tracks in all or most of their starts. Synthetic surfaces are as different from dirt as dirt is from turf. The Derby is not the place to make your dirt debut. Note that none of the top four finishers in the 2008 Derby had raced on a synthetic track. I don’t think that was just a coincidence. (Nor was it Just A Coincidence—he ran last week.)
All this has made my handicapping a bit easier this year—almost too easy.
My first group of horses to eliminate is those who are clearly overmatched: Mine That Bird, Join In The Dance, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private.
Then there are those who have not started on dirt, or have shown poor form on dirt: Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Pioneerof The Nile.
Which leaves us with 10 horses.
Regal Ransom and Desert Party—Here we go again. Sheikh Mohammed is determined to have things his way by prepping his horses in Dubai instead of the U.S. This has not worked in the past, and I don’t see this year being an exception. These horses’ 2-year-old starts in the U.S. were not outstanding enough to overcome the unorthodox training strategy (although you might want to throw Desert Party in your exotics if the track is muddy). It’s also telling that Frankie Dettori didn’t come over to ride one of them.
Summer Bird—I was looking at this one as a live longshot after the move he made at the end of the Arkansas Derby until I looked at his past performances. March 1 of the 3-year-old year is the latest racing debut for a Derby starter I can recall. His connections are asking for too much, too soon.
Dunkirk—I’ve never seen so much support at the Derby for a horse who has never won a stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher blamed a slow pace for Dunkirk’s loss in the Florida Derby. In what universe is six furlongs in 1:10.3 slow? Watch the replay of that race and you’ll see that he just couldn’t stay with Quality Road down the lane.
General Quarters—He’s been one of the feel-good stories because his owner-trainer is a 75-year-old retired teacher. He looked good in the Sam F. Davis (and the Blue Grass, of course, but that was on a rubber track), where he handed Musket Man his only loss. I watched both the Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby (where Musket Man won) and didn’t see a real excuse for either loss. Then again, all races at Tampa Bay Downs look like a stampede through a sandbar. I prefer Musket Man because his overall record is more consistent.
And now, in honor of Dr. Demento, it’s Funny Five time!
5. WEST SIDE BERNIE—Every year, there’s a plodder who comes in third or fourth and messes up everybody’s gimmicks. This one is a late-closer with dirt experience, and he’s been getting a share of the purse against the big boys. He could be this year’s Denis of Cork.
4. MUSKET MAN—Don’t overlook a horse who has never been off the board, especially one with that all-important dirt experience.
3. FRIESAN FIRE—The karma choice. After all the undeserved abuse his connections have taken after Eight Belles’ death last year, it would be so great for them—and the sport—to see them win it all. I would feel a little better, though, if the horse’s last race weren’t seven weeks ago. Could move up one—or two—notches if the track is sloppy.
2. PAPA CLEM—I thought of him as a one-dimensional speedball, but the Arkansas Derby reverses that judgment. He showed that he doesn’t need the lead, and his kind of tactical speed is very dangerous in the Derby.
Call me a chalk-eating weasel, but on paper and on video, there is a clear number one this year….
1. I WANT REVENGE—He was just one of several contenders on the West Coast plasti-tracks, but a move to the New York dirt gave him another gear. Reminds me of what happened when Cigar was moved from turf to dirt. If you have any doubts, just watch this:
Anything that could have gone wrong did for I Want Revenge in the Wood—a horrible start, traffic problems in the stretch, and a pace that was down to a crawl—but he still won. Barring a true disaster, I don’t see what else the Derby could throw at him.
That’s it. Your mileage may vary.
Several horses that would not have had the graded earnings to break into the field in past years have, due to attrition, been able to give their owners free access to the best Derby parties, and little else.
Consider that six horses each have only a maiden win, and only three have won a Grade 1 stakes. One of the race’s “buzz” horses, Dunkirk, is eligible for a non-winners-of-three allowance.
Then there are horses that have raced on synthetic tracks in all or most of their starts. Synthetic surfaces are as different from dirt as dirt is from turf. The Derby is not the place to make your dirt debut. Note that none of the top four finishers in the 2008 Derby had raced on a synthetic track. I don’t think that was just a coincidence. (Nor was it Just A Coincidence—he ran last week.)
All this has made my handicapping a bit easier this year—almost too easy.
My first group of horses to eliminate is those who are clearly overmatched: Mine That Bird, Join In The Dance, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private.
Then there are those who have not started on dirt, or have shown poor form on dirt: Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Pioneerof The Nile.
Which leaves us with 10 horses.
Regal Ransom and Desert Party—Here we go again. Sheikh Mohammed is determined to have things his way by prepping his horses in Dubai instead of the U.S. This has not worked in the past, and I don’t see this year being an exception. These horses’ 2-year-old starts in the U.S. were not outstanding enough to overcome the unorthodox training strategy (although you might want to throw Desert Party in your exotics if the track is muddy). It’s also telling that Frankie Dettori didn’t come over to ride one of them.
Summer Bird—I was looking at this one as a live longshot after the move he made at the end of the Arkansas Derby until I looked at his past performances. March 1 of the 3-year-old year is the latest racing debut for a Derby starter I can recall. His connections are asking for too much, too soon.
Dunkirk—I’ve never seen so much support at the Derby for a horse who has never won a stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher blamed a slow pace for Dunkirk’s loss in the Florida Derby. In what universe is six furlongs in 1:10.3 slow? Watch the replay of that race and you’ll see that he just couldn’t stay with Quality Road down the lane.
General Quarters—He’s been one of the feel-good stories because his owner-trainer is a 75-year-old retired teacher. He looked good in the Sam F. Davis (and the Blue Grass, of course, but that was on a rubber track), where he handed Musket Man his only loss. I watched both the Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby (where Musket Man won) and didn’t see a real excuse for either loss. Then again, all races at Tampa Bay Downs look like a stampede through a sandbar. I prefer Musket Man because his overall record is more consistent.
And now, in honor of Dr. Demento, it’s Funny Five time!
5. WEST SIDE BERNIE—Every year, there’s a plodder who comes in third or fourth and messes up everybody’s gimmicks. This one is a late-closer with dirt experience, and he’s been getting a share of the purse against the big boys. He could be this year’s Denis of Cork.
4. MUSKET MAN—Don’t overlook a horse who has never been off the board, especially one with that all-important dirt experience.
3. FRIESAN FIRE—The karma choice. After all the undeserved abuse his connections have taken after Eight Belles’ death last year, it would be so great for them—and the sport—to see them win it all. I would feel a little better, though, if the horse’s last race weren’t seven weeks ago. Could move up one—or two—notches if the track is sloppy.
2. PAPA CLEM—I thought of him as a one-dimensional speedball, but the Arkansas Derby reverses that judgment. He showed that he doesn’t need the lead, and his kind of tactical speed is very dangerous in the Derby.
Call me a chalk-eating weasel, but on paper and on video, there is a clear number one this year….
1. I WANT REVENGE—He was just one of several contenders on the West Coast plasti-tracks, but a move to the New York dirt gave him another gear. Reminds me of what happened when Cigar was moved from turf to dirt. If you have any doubts, just watch this:
Anything that could have gone wrong did for I Want Revenge in the Wood—a horrible start, traffic problems in the stretch, and a pace that was down to a crawl—but he still won. Barring a true disaster, I don’t see what else the Derby could throw at him.
That’s it. Your mileage may vary.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Damnedest Thing I've Ever Seen?
This is the week when I officially go crazy.
This is the week when I spend hours analyzing a handful of horse races, watch the replays of those races repeatedly, and scour horse racing websites for any clue that might help me make a bet on a two-minute race.
This is the week that I dig books and old Racing Forms out of the basement, not only to find patterns in races from past years, but to relive a lot of great memories as well.
This is the week that climaxes with me in a crowded OTB, getting misty-eyed at the playing of the official song of a state where I’ve never lived.
This is the week that I actually like Dan Fogelberg.
This is Kentucky Derby Week.
It means little to most sports fans, and probably less to most racing fans than it does to me. But it was an obsession in my house when I was growing up.
The first Derby I remember watching was 1972, when I was six. I remember my brothers studying the Racing Form and talking about the race, with the name of one horse standing out—Riva Ridge. It just sounded like a winner to me. He was not the best Derby winner ever, though—or even the best from his own stable. That would happen the next year.
The ‘70s were a golden age for the Derby, with three Triple Crown winners and several near misses. The major prep races were telecast on ABC, and I spent all spring waiting for the buildup to the big day—as did everybody else in my house.
Then I got the chance to see three Derbies in person in the 1980s. The Kentucky Derby should be on anybody’s “Bucket List.” I will never forget my first glimpse of Churchill Downs. I’d seen it on TV many times, but that does not do it justice, if only due to the size of the grandstand. My idea of a racetrack was Beulah Park. I was not prepared to see the Twin Spires.
Through the years, through my career in horse racing, as well as my present incarnation outside the sport, everything has stopped for the Derby. My family is scattered across the country, but at around 6 p.m. this Saturday, I will know exactly what they’re doing.
The Derby is not only the peak of the Thoroughbred racing season, but the ultimate handicapping challenge because it is unlike any other race. No other race in North America has a field of up to 20 horses—all separate betting interests for bigger payoffs. No race features 3-year-olds racing farther than they have before. No race is run with a crowd of over 100,000—many of them partying in the infield.
I write this, I have given Saturday’s Derby past performances a quick look. This edition’s field has more question marks than a Spanish phrasebook. It looks like the damnedest thing I’ve ever seen.
But I say that every year.
This is the week when I spend hours analyzing a handful of horse races, watch the replays of those races repeatedly, and scour horse racing websites for any clue that might help me make a bet on a two-minute race.
This is the week that I dig books and old Racing Forms out of the basement, not only to find patterns in races from past years, but to relive a lot of great memories as well.
This is the week that climaxes with me in a crowded OTB, getting misty-eyed at the playing of the official song of a state where I’ve never lived.
This is the week that I actually like Dan Fogelberg.
This is Kentucky Derby Week.
It means little to most sports fans, and probably less to most racing fans than it does to me. But it was an obsession in my house when I was growing up.
The first Derby I remember watching was 1972, when I was six. I remember my brothers studying the Racing Form and talking about the race, with the name of one horse standing out—Riva Ridge. It just sounded like a winner to me. He was not the best Derby winner ever, though—or even the best from his own stable. That would happen the next year.
The ‘70s were a golden age for the Derby, with three Triple Crown winners and several near misses. The major prep races were telecast on ABC, and I spent all spring waiting for the buildup to the big day—as did everybody else in my house.
Then I got the chance to see three Derbies in person in the 1980s. The Kentucky Derby should be on anybody’s “Bucket List.” I will never forget my first glimpse of Churchill Downs. I’d seen it on TV many times, but that does not do it justice, if only due to the size of the grandstand. My idea of a racetrack was Beulah Park. I was not prepared to see the Twin Spires.
Through the years, through my career in horse racing, as well as my present incarnation outside the sport, everything has stopped for the Derby. My family is scattered across the country, but at around 6 p.m. this Saturday, I will know exactly what they’re doing.
The Derby is not only the peak of the Thoroughbred racing season, but the ultimate handicapping challenge because it is unlike any other race. No other race in North America has a field of up to 20 horses—all separate betting interests for bigger payoffs. No race features 3-year-olds racing farther than they have before. No race is run with a crowd of over 100,000—many of them partying in the infield.
I write this, I have given Saturday’s Derby past performances a quick look. This edition’s field has more question marks than a Spanish phrasebook. It looks like the damnedest thing I’ve ever seen.
But I say that every year.
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